Assam assembly election results 2021 and the changing demographic equations: A few insights

The results of the 126-member Assam Legislative Assembly that were declared on May 2, saw the BJP+ (BJP+AGP+UPPL) making an impressive comeback with a total number of 75 seats. On the contrary, the Congress-led Grand Alliance has been able to capture 50 seats, majority of which are concentrated in the Muslim-dominated districts of Lower Assam, Central Assam, and the Barak Valley.

But, the most important and intriguing question that arises here is – How far was the BJP’s slogan of Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, Sabka Vishwaas successful in terms of electoral outcomes in different constituencies across Assam?

In other words, did this slogan really prove to be a game-changer in translating the massive developmental works executed by the party into numbers in the Legislative Assembly, especially in those districts where Muslims are in a majority? Well, out of the 50 seats that the Congress-led Grand Alliance has been able to secure in the Assembly, 16 of them have gone to the AIUDF (all Muslim MLAs). It needs to be mentioned here that compared to the Assembly Elections of 2016, this time, the AIUDF has increased its tally by 2 more seats.

The Congress Party, in total, has won 29 seats in its kitty. Out of them, only with the exceptions of Rupjyoti Kurmi from Mariani, Debabrata Saikia from Nazira, Sushanta Borgohain from Thowra, and Bhaskarjyoti Baruah from Margherita, the rest of the 25 seats have all gone to candidates from a particular religious community often designated as “minority” in the public domain. Their numbers speak otherwise; hence, the term “minority” itself is an oxymoron.

The victory of these 25 candidates from different constituencies spread across Lower Assam, Central Assam, and the Barak Valley is enough to remind anyone familiar with the political scenario of Assam, about the fast-changing demographic equations in these districts.

This has been combined with the continuous disappearance of non-Muslim ethnic subgroups from these areas. No wonder, the Congress Party’s alliance with the AIUDF in this year’s elections naturally stood in its favour. The defeat of a popular leader like Gautam Roy from the Barak Valley is a classic case of this phenomenon which can rightly be termed as tactical ‘religious voting’ by the Muslims.

Several districts in Lower Assam which are contiguous to the international boundary with Bangladesh have seen some of the worst-impacts of this demographic transition over several decades. The root of the problem is deep, tracing its origins since the days of pre-Independence. The entire area comprising of present-day Lower Assam and some portions of North Bengal too, was once the ruling bastion of Dharmic warriors of the likes of Maharaja Naranarayan, Bir Chilarai, and Prithu. It was under their able leadership that invaders such as Bakhtiyar Khilji and Ghiyasuddin Tughlaq were brought to their knees, without any show of compassion.

Unfortunately, this same region today has not only become the hotbed of Islamic population expansionism but also increasing radicalisation through masjids and madrassas that have sprouted in increasing numbers along the Bharat-Bangladesh border, funded by Saudi Arabia through Pakistan’s ISI.

There is a popular saying that demography is destiny! Perhaps this has best been manifested in the electoral outcome of the Batadraba constituency in Nagaon district of Central Assam. The surrounding areas of Dhing and Batadraba in Nagaon have seen a huge demographic shift over the past 10-15 years, with political power finally shifting to the hands of the “peacefuls” this time.

The new “regionalists”/Jatiyotabadis of Assam would definitely love to paint it as the victory of secularism over the communal card played by the BJP. In doing this, they have very easily whitewashed the history of a violent cult that has never believed in the grand ideals of secularism, religious harmony or peaceful co-existence.

The victory of the Congress Party’s controversial Sibamoni Bora from Batadroba is an alarming development that every Assamese Hindu seriously needs to rethink. The venomous brand of politics practised by the new Jatiyotabadis of Assam is just old wine packaged in a new bottle. It has been marketed by an elite intelligentsia from their luxurious office spaces and university eco-chambers to the simple and gullible people of Assam as the solution to all the ills of their state.

It is in this context that demands have been raised time and again for introducing a Population Control Bill in the Assembly, with the objective of checking the abnormally high growth rates of population among the Muslims and subsequently depriving them of many government-funded schemes and benefits. If such a strong policy measure is not undertaken at the earliest, the worst possible scenario may be that the larger Assamese community (including people from different ethnic groups and sub-groups) will become a minority in their own homeland within just a few years time.

The cases of West Bengal and Kerala and the extremely pathetic state of the Hindus here, stand out as apt examples of the looming threat of Islamic population explosion. The post-poll violence unleashed upon the Hindus of West Bengal by the Muslims clearly brings home this point.

In fact, the voting pattern of the 30% Muslim community of West Bengal speaks out loud that they had voted en-masse for the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in order to oust the BJP and thereby defeat the Hindus from capturing the reins of power. Blind voting informed by the tenets of Islam while defying all logic, is the most remarkable characteristic of the voting behaviour among Muslims.

Most of the exit polls that predicted a huge win for the BJP in West Bengal thus proved wrong. It must not be forgotten that Islam unites all Muslims, across the world. They take the calling as a single united bloc on whom to cast their vote for, after taking into predominant consideration the religious factor among all.

Leaving aside all political correctness, what needs to be accepted at this point is that Muslims, in general, vote against any political party that does not fit into their Islamic worldview in which the kafirs (non-believers) are seen as sub-humans. In the case of a state like West Bengal which had been under Communist rule for several decades in the past, CM Mamata Banerjee’s open appeasement of the Muslims in the present-day context of widespread demographic change meant that her victory was quite easily ensured. Hence, given the context, such a win does not call for much celebration.

The Central BJP leadership, on its part, had devoted much time and energy to wrest power in West Bengal from the TMC. Under normal circumstances, the BJP would have definitely registered a stupendous win in the state that has, for long, borne the brunt of Communist excesses and is now burning in the hands of Islamists. But, the 30% Muslim population of the state and their common, united vote for the TMC across all constituencies in West Bengal, combined with a fragmented Hindu vote, eventually dashed all hopes for the BJP to come to power.

It is important to recall here that in the elections that were held in the year 1946 for the formation of an Interim Government of India from the newly-elected Constituent Assembly, the so-called Bengali bhadralok had formed a Government with the Muslim League at its helm.

Immediately after that, a mass genocide of the Bengali Hindus was unleashed in the streets of Bengal and we all know what these series of events eventually led to – the formation of a separate state of East Pakistan in 1947, blessed with the moral and intellectual support of the Bengali bhadralok community.

In any eventuality of the Muslim population of West Bengal crossing the 40% mark, it can be imagined by any rational mind the further deplorable situation that the Hindus there would be pushed to. Who knows whether the seeds of a separate nationhood are already brewing in the Muslim-majority districts of Bengal that are contiguous to the international boundary with Bangladesh?

Victory of the Left in Kerala raises alarm bells from the point of view of the country’s national security and integrity. It must never be forgotten that the Left parties, supported by the ‘Urban Naxals’ – an elite intelligentsia masquerading as journalists and media-persons, academics, human rights activists, etc. – have been the perpetrators of some of the most violent and gruesome crimes against our army and security personnel in the states of Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand.

Well, the most commonly heard propaganda that has been doing the rounds in social media immediately after the election results were declared is that Kerala, being the most literate state in India, has rejected the virulent brand of nationalism professed by the BJP.

But, a few genuine questions arise here – What about the mindless political killings of RSS cadres that have always taken place in Kerala, especially in the Muslim-majority districts of Mamallapuram? Why have these “intellectuals” not uttered a single word against Kerala gradually transforming itself into an ugly den of Jihadis, financed and backed by a well-oiled machinery operating from the Middle East? Does it not threaten the sovereignty and integrity of the Indian nation-state?

A few of them even celebrate the killings of innocent civilians and armed forces personnel in the states of Jharkhand and Chattisgarh. But, aren’t these the same people who are protecting the lives of everyone in this country, including these propagandists disguised as “intellectuals”?

Given such a dire context, does it not look all the more plausible at this moment to implement a strict Population Control Law that is equally applicable to all communities, irrespective of religion? It may obviously raise the eyes of many a secularists and liberals, but if this is not done at the earliest, the possibility of Bharat turning into an Islamic theocratic state under the Ghazwa-e-Hind Project, cannot be ruled out at any cost. The prevailing cycle of violence in West Bengal has all the potentials of repeating itself in Assam, Kerala and anywhere across the country within a time-span of 15-20 years.

It is very important to initiate an honest debate and discussion on this highly sensitive issue that has, for long, been considered to be politically incorrect and even academically suicidal to talk about. Most importantly, this awareness of checking an uncontrolled population boom needs to come from the people’s side. From the point of view of the environment too, an unchecked, ever-increasing growth rate of population is not feasible in the long-run.

Prior to the 2021 Assam Legislative Assembly Elections, the Assam Unit of the Janasankhya Samadhan Foundation had undertaken a mass awareness drive on the issue which, unfortunately, could not gain much traction because of the lack of right political will among several of its members.

Our history is replete with the stories of horrendous atrocities committed by the Islamic invaders on the people of our country, not even sparing women and children. Our religious places of worship were destroyed and looted of all their riches by the blood-thirsty invaders. The civilisational battle over the Ram Mandir at Ayodhya that kept on languishing at the doors of the highest judicial authority of the country makes this point further clear.

Definitely, the war today is no longer taking place through the power of the sword; instead, it is taking place through a demographic war of numbers. Uncontrolled and unchecked Islamic population explosion is not to be understood through the lens of religion. It poses an existential threat to our civilisation and culture, our homes and hearth.

It is just a matter of a few years time when the bomb will explode, having repercussions at different places throughout the country in its own different ways.

-by Sailendra Pandey 


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